Our college football rampage continues as J&Q are now a combined 45-33-2 (58%) on the season for a running total of 9.6 units. After another 2.46 units gained last week, we’ll look to get our cumulative number over 10 units after this week. There are some great matchups on the schedule in week 11 with Michigan heading to Happy Valley to take on PSU, Ole Miss at UGA, Tennessee at Missouri, and Utah at Washington. Buckle up and stack some units with us. Always remember to bet smarter, not harder.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 10: 27-17-2, +8.13 units)
Oklahoma State @ UCF – Saturday 11/11 (3:30 PM EST)
Pick: UCF +2.5 (-105) (1 unit)
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are likely coming into Orlando, FL still feeling the hangover after a massive win over Oklahoma last week. Sadly it was the last Bedlam game we will see for years to come, but hats off to the Cowboys for pulling the upset and storming the field. See ya, Sooners. That being said, I’m riding with the UCF Knights on Saturday. This feels like a big let down spot for OK State after last week’s W and quite frankly UCF’s offense can match up with OK State any day of the week. If UCF’s defense can contain star RB Ollie Gordon even just a little bit, they can absolutely hang in this game. UCF has an equally impressive weapon at RB in rising star RJ Harvey. A small aside there, I’m going to see world renowned king of disco music DJ Harvey on Saturday night in Los Angeles so if you’re reading the tea leaves this can only mean good things for RJ Harvey. Saturday is Harvey day, as far as I’m concerned. Score Prediction: UCF 34 – OK State 27.
Arizona @ Colorado – Saturday 11/11 (2:00 PM EST)
Pick: Under 54.5 points (-110) (1 unit)
What a season it’s been for these Arizona Wildcats. They’ve now rattled off three upsets in a row as they head to Colorado to take on a struggling CU team. What is even more impressive, the Wildcats are a CFB leading 8-1 against the spread this year. I’m incredibly tempted to take the -10.5 here, but instead I’m going to take the under 54.5. This is an early game by Arizona standards and I fear they could come out a bit flat. The vast majority of AZ football games tend to be played at night with the hot temperatures for most of the late summer/early fall in Tucson at home and the overall nature of the PAC12 “after dark” schedule. I think they’ll march into Boulder and get another W but it might be ugly. On the other side of the ball, the Buffaloes are reeling and they should not have even scored 19 points at home against Oregon State last week. The Beavers held them to 5 points through three quarters and before giving up two fourth quarter TDs after the W was already sealed. The Wildcats are winning ugly in this one. Score Prediction: Arizona 23 – Colorado 16.
Michigan @ Penn State – Saturday 11/11 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Michigan -4.5 (-110) (1 unit)
What a bizarre couple weeks it’s been for the Michigan football program. As an unbiased fan with no ties to the BIG10, it’s been one of the funniest stories I can ever remember watching this sign stealing thing unfold day after day. For many programs I would expect that to be a big distraction, but I have a feeling Harbaugh is going to use it as extreme motivation. If Michigan looks bad in this game or even loses, every BIG10 talking head (mostly OSU fans) will be coming with the pitchforks, crying about how Michigan can’t win without cheating. Silly motivation aside, Michigan is absolutely the better team here and I think -4.5 is insulting. Similarly to Michigan, Penn State has played nobody this year. Aside from an embarrassing L at Ohio State, who in my opinion is just a worse version of Michigan, they’ve played a very soft schedule. This being a day game and not a night game for the Nittany Lions also makes me even less scared of their crowd. I’m ready for another statement W from the Wolverines. Score Prediction: Michigan 27 – Penn State 13.
Tennessee @ Missouri – Saturday 11/11 (3:30 PM EST)
Pick: Missouri ML (+110) (.91 unit)
I’m putting a funky .91u on the Missouri Tigers to beat the Vols at home, which will cash us an even 1 unit when the clock strikes 0:00 on Saturday night in Columbia. Both these teams are playing some good ball, but I think Missouri is rounding into form at the perfect time of the year and they’ll lean on a good home crowd to seal this W. Tennessee has proven all year they can be beaten by the pass (222 ypg, 137th in the country) and Missourci happens to pass the ball very well. Brady Cook has lit up some awful SEC pass defenses already this year (LSU & Vandy) and he’ll look to do the same again on Saturday evening. Missouri hung with UGA last week for a half and has looked impressive at home this year aside from a 4th quarter defensive meltdown against LSU a month ago. Tigers have their eyes on a NY6 bowl, and the next step towards that goal is a W against the Vols. Score Prediction: Missouri 30 – Tennessee 27.
Utah @ Washington – Saturday 11/11 (3:30 PM EST)
Pick: Over 49.5 points (-110) (1 unit)
It looks like it’s going to be a wet weekend in Seattle, but the rain should likely slow down around Noon on Saturday which bodes well for some point scoring in another big Pac12 clash. The Washington Huskies have their eyes set on the CFP and they’ll have to win a few more big games to get there. Utah’s defense is good but they are not great against the pass (92nd ranked pass defense in CFB) and we all know what Michael Pennix can do. Washington should have no problem moving the ball, and their defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone for most of the last 6 weeks. This game could evolve into a shootout and 49.5 should be more than doable. Points points points and more points. Score Prediction: Washington 34 – Utah 31.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 10: 18-16, +1.495 units)
Michigan @ Penn State/Utah @ Washington
Pick: 2 Leg Parlay: Penn State/Michigan Total Points Under 48.5/Washington Moneyline (+105) (1 unit)
Little college football parlay action for you this week.
Penn State and Michigan have two of the best all around defenses in the country. Despite Michigan’s superior offense, the Nittany Lions will be the best team they’ve faced by far all season and that face off will occur in Happy Valley. Yes, Michigan has arguably the best dynamic run duo in Blake Corum/Donovan Edwards. Bad news for Wolverines fans? Penn State has allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing offenses in the country this year (55.9 rushing yards/game). Michigan has the QB advantage in JJ McCarthy over Drew Allar. Too bad Penn State also has one of the best secondaries in the country, only allowing 190.4 passing yards/game. I was very tempted to back Penn State to win this game but I’m rolling with the under here given how terrible Drew Allar looked against Ohio State and how good Michigan’s defense has looked all season (fewest passing yards allowed/game in the country, 11th fewest rushing yards/game allowed in the country). This one should be another classic Big Ten defensive slugfest. Score Prediction: Michigan 23 – Penn State 20.
Washington appears to be on a collision course for an electric PAC 12 rematch with Oregon to decide all the conference marbles a few weeks from now. The undefeated Huskies tout one of the most effective pass offenses in the country led by Heisman frontrunner Michael Pennix Jr. and the Utes have struggled to get things going on the offensive side of the ball this season. Utah’s defense has been stingy as usual this year and I suspect Washington will have issues moving the ball on the ground but it’s impossible to ignore Washington’s advantage through the air with Pennix Jr under center. Washington’s run defense has also been good enough to neutralize Utah’s run attack so this should be a long day for the Ute’s offense. Huskies get the job done at home this week. Score Prediction: Washington 31 – Utah 20.
Duke @ North Carolina – Saturday, 11/11 (8:00 PM EST)
Pick: Duke +14.5 (-110) (1 unit)
No this isn’t a basketball take. Duke and North Carolina officially have relevant football programs for the first time in recent memory (probably ever as far as Duke) and this in state rivalry clash has all the makings of a nail biter. Duke has lost their starting QB Riley Leonard twice now this season but backup option Henry Belin IV has stepped in admirably numerous times throughout the year and Duke’s run game has been solid enough to keep them in this game if Belin struggles early. Duke’s secondary has also stepped up in 2023 so this will be no walk in the park for Drake Maye as the spread would suggest. I’m not necessarily calling a straight upset here for Duke given their injury uncertainties at the moment but I do love them to keep this game close, especially inside two TDs. Score Prediction: UNC 31 – Duke 27.
Air Force @ Hawaii – Saturday, 11/11 (11:00 PM EST)
Pick: Air Force Total Points Over 32.5 (-118) (1 unit)
Hawaii is about to walk into a buzz saw against Air Force on Saturday night. Air Force’s perfect season was spoiled by Army last week (extra sting coming from a fellow service academy) and their top run offense is set to face off against one of the worst defenses at stopping the run in the country in Hawaii. While the spread is also in play here given Air Force’s stingy defense, I’m opting to bank on Air Force’s offense to let out some rage and easily cover 33 points against a team currently allowing 35.6 points/game (Air Force is also averaging over 33.6 points/game in their 8 victories this season). Expect the Falcons to bounce back and control this game from start to finish. Score Prediction: Air Force 38 – Hawaii 20.
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