NFL Week 9 Bets

It’s Week 9 in the NFL and all is right with the world. The boys combined to go 5-2 for a total of +1.92 units last week and confidence is at an all time high. The NFL trade deadline has now come and past and it’s time to capitalize on the value left in its aftermath. Let’s make some money. Bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets (After Week 8: 20-14, +6.045 units)

Miami Dolphins “@” Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, 11/5 (9:30 AM EST) (Germany Game)
Pick: Chiefs -1.5 (-109) (1 unit)

Ultimate buy low spot on KC this week after probably their worst game of the year last week. Mahomes bounce back game overseas? Yes please. KC’s secondary should be up to the challenge against Miami’s elite WR room this week, the Dolphins run game is still very up in the air and Mahomes should be able to pick apart Miami’s secondary regardless of Ramsay’s return. Catching Mahomes over Tua here at less than a field goal in an environment in which virtually every fan there is just excited to see Mahomes play (again, Germany game) = mortal lock. Don’t forget, the Dolphins got absolutely smoked by the best two teams they’ve played this year (20-48 vs the Bills and 17-31 against the Eagles). Score Prediction: Chiefs 30 – Dolphins 20.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns – Sunday, 11/5 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Browns -7.5 (-115) (1 unit)

I’ll keep this breakdown very, very short. Cleveland’s defense catching Clayton Thune at home? Easy money. The Cardinals are clearly punting on this season (no chance Kyler returns this week, or possibly at any point this season), the Browns run game is solid enough to carry PJ Walker to victory and Clayton Thune will have nightmares of the day he faced Myles Garrett for the rest of his life. Cleveland wins by more than a TD easy. Score Prediction: Browns 24 – Cardinals 13.

Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots/Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers
Pick: 2 Leg Parlay: Commanders/Patriots Total Points Under 44.5/Panthers +10.5 (-108) (1 unit)

The Commanders just shipped off basically their entire pass rush in Montez Sweat/Chase Young yesterday and now Sam Howell is forced to face a Belichick defense in Foxborough… a true rookie nightmare. I have full faith in Belichick to make Howell see ghosts out there on Sunday and I don’t have any faith in this Pat’s offense to take advantage of Washington’s defensive deficiencies at the moment (especially after losing Kendrick Bourne). All signs point to the under in New England on Sunday. Shocker. Score Prediction: Patriots 20 – Commanders 17.

Yes, I’m betting on the Panthers two weeks in a row. Wild right? After calling the Panthers first victory of the season last week, I’m doubling down but in a much lesser fashion in Week 9 as Frank Reich faces his former team for the first time as Carolina’s head coach. Bryce Young is a winner, and sometimes shooters just need to see the ball go through the net. Last week’s victory combined with Frank Reich’s obvious desire to show up against the last team to fire him could combine for a solid showing out of the rookie playing at home this week. While I’m not confident enough to predict back to back upset victories for the Panthers this week, especially considering the massive advantage Indy has in the run game in this matchup, I do feel very confident in Carolina to make this a game and keep it within 10 points. Love Gardner Minshew but expect him to struggle against this Panthers secondary. Keep pounding. Score Prediction: Colts 24 – Panthers 20.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles – Sunday, 11/5 (4:25 PM EST)
Picks: Cowboys +3 (-108) (0.8 units) & Cowboys Moneyline (+146) (0.2 units)

As much as I hate backing the Cowboys, man do they look good right now coming out of their recent bye week. Dak has finally come to life, the Eagles secondary is suspect… especially against above average QBs, Ceedee Lamb is that guy and Jalen Hurts clearly isn’t healthy (aggressively weakening his rush threat abilities). The Cowboys secondary has remained solid despite losing Trevon Diggs at the beginning of the season which is terrible news for Philly considering how limited Hurts looks right now on the ground. These two teams appear to be on two separate trajectories at the moment which is terrible news for Philly in a divisional game holding significant weight as we reach the midway point of the season. I’ll wait to fade Dallas come playoff time (aka “Dak’s time to not shine”). Score Prediction: Cowboys 24 – Eagles 21.

Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 11/5 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Total Points Over 48.5 (-110) (1 unit)

Let me paint the picture… It’s a cold night in Cincy the day after New Years. Cincy’s red hot offense is set to square off against Josh Allen and his equally surging Bills offense in what should be one of the best games of the season with massive playoff implications. As well all know… ultimately tragedy struck and this clash of the titans was halted prematurely. Fast forward to today. The Bills have one of the most efficient offenses in the league currently but some overlooked holes on defense and the Bengals appear to be surging close to top form again with Joe Burrow playing at the level we’re accustomed to seeing and a healthy/elite WR1A/WR1B setup in Chase and Higgins. This game should be absolutely electric. Neither one of these defenses will take over this game and given the level of offensive fire power both teams possess… this one feels like an offensive heavy weight bout. Points, points, points. This might be my unofficial prediction for best game of the regular season. Score Prediction: Bengals 31 – Bills 27.

DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 8: 14-19-1, -4.69 units)

Dolphins vs. Chiefs – Sunday 11/5 (9:30 AM EST) (Frankfurt, Germany)

Pick: Parlay: Travis Kelce Any Time TD and Chiefs +3.5 (+126) .79u 

I was initially going to stay away from this game but instead I’ve cooked up a nice little plus-money parlay to wet the beak with the Germany game on Sunday morning. Truth be told, I initially thought this game was being played in Munich. That might seem like an inconsequently fact but I had this whole blurb written in my head about how I’ve actually been to a (European) football (futbol) game at Bayern Munich Stadium in Munich and it’s typically lit up with red colors and the Chiefs are red so I love the Chiefs here but instead I have to throw that mental blurb in the trash bin (or write it here to waste your time, sorry). Instead they are playing in the rather ugly city of Frankfurt which was destroyed during WW2 and rebuilt into the financial hub of central Europe. The stadium name write are owned by Deutsche Bank, and a fun fact about Deutsche bank is they played a key role in the financial crisis of 2008 and ended up paying a nearly $2B fine to the US Housing Finance Agency for defrauding investors. I say all this to tell you that Travis Kelce will be scoring on Sunday and the Chiefs will likely win, but even if they lose by three points we’re still cashing this parlay. The Dolphins might be the biggest fraud in the NFL (soon to be the biggest frauds in the European NFL (and even bigger frauds than Deatsche Bank)). Thank you for coming to my ted-talk. Score Prediction: Chiefs 30 – Dolphins 20. 

Vikings @ Falcons – Sunday 11/5 (1:00 PM EST)

Pick: Falcons -3.5  (-110) (1 unit)

I never thought I would be so excited about Taylor Heinicke getting a start at QB, but that’s where we’re at with the Atlanta Falcons. See ya later, Desmond Ridder. Heinicke steps into an incredibly well rounded squad that is seemingly a QB away from competing in the playoffs. ATL comes in with the 10th most rushing yards per game (126.3) and a top 5 defense in terms of total yards allowed (309 per game). If they had league average QB under center all year they very well could be 6-2. Heinicke is no Mahomes, but he should be able to do enough to get the Falcons above .500 through 9 weeks. -3.5 is a sketchy number to be holding in a close game but I’d be shocked if Jaren Hall can keep this one that close. Hall is a 25 year old rookie QB from BYU who will likely struggle against a solid Falcons pass defense. Falcons by a least a TD here. Score Prediction: Falcons 24 – Vikings 13.

Buccaneers @ Texans – Sunday 11/5 (1:00 PM EST)

Pick: Texans -3 (-105) (1 unit)

I like the Texans here in a bounce back spot coming off a tough loss in the rookie QB showdown against Bryce Young and the Panthers last week. Houston’s run defense continues to stifle opponents and I think we’ll see a similar story play out here. The Texans will force Baker Mayfield to beat them down the stretch and I’m having a hard time seeing that happen. Baker has really only been able to show out against truly bad teams and the Texans are far from an awful team. CJ Stroud continues to progress, and I think he takes another step here getting the W and covering the -3. Score Prediction: Texans 23 – Buccaneers 17.

Chargers @ Jets – Monday 11/6 (8:15 PM EST)

Pick: Jets +3.5  (-110) (1 unit)

Betting on Zach Wilson is not for the faint of heart, but I think we’ll see on Monday why this Jets defense is in the Super Elite tier of NFL defenses. New York will likely keep the Chargers offense inside of 20 points so that means Zach and the boys should only need to muster together 17+ to cover this 3.5 points. The Chargers have a god awful pass defense, and if there’s any team in the league Zach should have success against it would be this Chargers defense. LAC is allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game (last in the league) so Zach Wilson may have a career day (which doesn’t mean much, quite frankly). This one is going to be close down the stretch and it will be quite a bonus holding these 3.5 points. Score Prediction: Chargers 20 – Jets 17.

Cowboys @ Eagles – Sunday 11/5 (4:25 PM EST)

Pick: under 47 (-110) (1 unit)

Not a whole lot of analysis here other than I think this game is going to be rock fight and both teams will struggle to finish drives. These two met on Christmas Eve last year and the final score surpassed 70 points…so it’s time for them to come back to earth and we should see some defense in this one. Jalen Hurts is banged up, so the Eagles will likely rely heavily on the run game which should bog this game down a bit. Dak will likely be running for his life at times so Dallas will likely have to pound the rock down the stretch as well. 47 isn’t a massive number but I like the under a lot here. Score Prediction: Eagles 23 – Cowboys 20. 

Bills @ Bengals – Sunday 11/5 (8:20 PM EST)

Pick: Bengals -2 (-110) (1 unit)

How could you possibly look at this Sunday slate of games, see the ‘Damar Hamlin Returns to Cincy’ game, and not bet on the Bills? Well I’ll tell you what, I’m going to do the exact opposite of that. The Bengals have completely flipped the script on this season and they are finally looking like the Super Bowl juggernaut that we thought they’d be. Burrow looks healthy as a horse and Lou Anarumo has the Bengals defense looking sharp as a tack. Buffalo, on the other hand, looks solid against bad teams but incredibly flawed against the rest. Some real heavily calculated numbers for you: since October 1st the Bills have gone Win, Loss, Win, Loss, Win. Which means I can predict with 100% certainty that they will lose here to the Bengals (by 3 or more points). Score Prediction: Bengals 26 – Bills 23.

DisclaimerSidehustlebetsMJQ.com is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.

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