I’m not even going to touch on Week 6… There was blood. Thankfully we’re still in the green for the season and ready to stage one hell of a rebound number this week. Time to buy the dip. Bet smarter, not harder.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 6: 15-12, +4.155 units)
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots – Sunday, 10/22 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Bills -7.5 (-110) (1 unit)
I will waste no more time breaking down matchups for the Bills until they grant me the true rebound blowout that’s been on the horizon since London. Buffalo’s injuries on defense shouldn’t matter too much against Mac Jones and the Bad News… Pats? I’m also not super worried about Billy B and New England’s traditionally stingy defense playing at home this week (losing arguably their two best players for the season in Gonzalez/Judon) against an MVP candidate that definitely wants to remind the public that he is still in fact an MVP candidate. Allen’s also bullied the Pats for most of his career. Right some wrongs for us Josh. Score Prediction: Bills 27 – Patriots 13.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ LA Rams – Sunday, 10/22 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Rams -3 (-110) (1 unit)
Despite my personal annoyance at the Rams’ slow start last week… I’m still in on this Rams passing attack and fully believe the Kupp/Puka dynamic could quickly become 2023’s version of Chase/Higgins. This Steelers offense is bad bad and I’m not even remotely scared to hear that Diontae Johnson should return this week. If you had DJ on your fantasy roster last year, you know he’s not a huge threat to find the end zone… Full confidence in the Rams’ pass attack to have its way with this Steelers’ secondary and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them move the ball on the ground as well despite Kyren Williams’ injury. I also think the Kenny Pickett experiment is very clearly a failure and I have no clue how they expect to throw on the Rams secondary or run on… well any team in the NFL. Rams might put the league on notice at home on Sunday… Score Prediction: Rams 24 – Steelers 17.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks – Sunday, 10/22 (4:05 PM EST)
Pick: Trey McBride Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114) (1 unit)
Trey McBride’s presence on this offense has been steadily growing week over week and he even outpaced Zach Ertz (presumed current TE1) in snaps last week. Seattle is towards the very bottom of the league defending against TEs so far this season and McBride more than tripled this line last week (posting 62 receiving yards on 4 receptions). Love this spot for McBride given his increased snaps/target share and because there’s a good chance the Cardinals could be playing from behind for a decent portion of this game (forcing them to air it out more). Prop Prediction: 27 Receiving Yards.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 6: 11-15-1, -3.42 units)
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts – Sunday 10/22 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Under 41 points (-110) (1 unit)
It’s looking like another game of no Deshaun Watson under center for this struggling Browns offense, but even if he does start, I could care less. Watson has looked shaky at best when he’s been healthy this year and I’d imagine more rust along with a sore shoulder will spell trouble for him. The Browns know they can lean on their defense and run game anyway so I wouldn’t expect them to press the issues much. Best case scenario, PJ Walker plays and the Browns struggle even more. There are some metrics that rank this Browns defense as the best defenses ever through six games, and those numbers go back several decades. This season has a long way to go but Cleveland looks incredibly elite on that side of the ball and they should have Gardner Minshew in hell on Sunday. Under 41 feels like a gimme here. Score Prediction: Browns 17 – Colts 9.
LA Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday 10/22 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Chargers +5.5 (-110) (1 unit)
My only spread pick of the week is the Chargers on the road in Kansas City. Justin Herbert and Co. have to be one of the most relentlessly disappointing groups in recent memory. He has seamlessly picked up the torch from Phillip Rivers as a gunslinger quarterback with a ton of question marks in big spots. Time and time again, the Chargers lose the big game and/or fall short on a big comeback. That’s precisely what I’m expecting here, but I’m gonna love to be hanging on to the 5.5 points in the 4th quarter. The Chiefs’ defense is elite but they have not been setting the world on fire on offense this year. Aside from the horrible Bears, they’ve yet to really blow anyone out, because they haven’t needed to. I think this game will look awfully similar to many of the Chiefs games this year and the Chargers will have a chance to win, and most importantly cover at the end. Side note, send the Chargers back to San Diego please. They don’t deserve this. Score Prediction: Chargers 23 – Chiefs 27.
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens – Sunday 10/22 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Over 42.5 points (-110) (1 unit)
I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but overs have been getting absolutely crushed this year. Despite that trend, I’m going against the grain here and taking over 42.5 in what could be the best game of the weekend. Baltimore’s defense has been really good but they also haven’t really played a good offense in 2023. They had Houston in week 1 white CJ Stroud was still finding his footing, and they had Cincy in week 2 as their offense was still struggling mightily. Besides that, it’s been a whole bunch of junk. Detroit’s defense has proven to be formidable but this Ravens offense is a whole different beast with the way they run the ball and Lamar’s unique abilities. I see both of these units having some real success on Sunday, and at least enough success to total 43 points. Score Prediction: Lions 24 – Ravens 30.
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos – Sunday 10/22 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Under 45 points (-110) (1 unit)
I’m rolling with another total here and it’s another under…and I think this could be the game that gets Russell Wilson benched. Although, if Denver is smart, they should keep Russ in there under center as a tanking tactic for the full season. Either way, both these offenses have struggled mightily and even with two pretty awful defenses on the field I think those struggles will continue. I don’t really have many stats to back up my pick here, this is more of a feel game, and I think we’re looking at something like 13-10 as we enter the 4th quarter. Love will be struggling, Wilson will be struggling, Sean Payton will be looking absolutely disgusted. I can’t wait. Score Prediction: Packers 20 – Broncos 17.
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