We got through last week’s gross slate of games relatively unscathed… 2-2 finish moving our season total to 9-6-1 for +2.005 units. This week should make for much more entertaining television compared to last week’s snoozefests so get your bet slips ready.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 3: 5-3-1, +1.55 units)
Colorado @ Oregon – Saturday, 9/23 (3:30 PM EST)
Picks: Oregon -21 (-110) 1 unit, U70.5 (-105) .5 unit
The party is over for the Buffs this weekend as they are HEAVY dawgs on the road in Autzen Stadium to take on the Ducks. The shit talking has been much more tame this week from The Sanders Family, as I’m sure they know they are marching to their death in Eugene. I’m by no stretch a Deion hater, he’s breathed some incredible life into what has been a pretty boring start to the CFB season across the board. I do think the hype and the excessive love is getting a bit annoying and a reality check is likely needed for this CU program. 21 points is a lot, but the Ducks are a well oiled machine. They will have no problem putting up hundreds of yards and dozens of points on this Colorado defense. This game will likely be over at half time and we could even see the Sanders boys on the bench in the fourth quarter with the game far out of reach. The public will of course be all over the Buffalos and the over which makes this one feel even better. Score Prediction: Oregon 41 – Colorado 23.
Ole Miss @ Alabama – Saturday, 9/23 (3:30 PM EST)
Picks: Ole Miss +7 (-110) 1 unit
This game right here is one of the many candidates for game of the week. To no surprise, Jalen Milroe is back starting under center for Alabama after a second half benching last week in South Florida. Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson both looked like booty cheeks as Milroe’s replacement so it’s no surprise they’re giving Jalen the start against this week. I smell trouble for Alabama in this one, and I certainly don’t think they’ll cover 7 points. The Crimson Tide have shown absolutely nothing this year to warrant being a TD favorite over another top 15 team. Nick Saban doing Jedi mind tricks on Lane Kiffin is the only real argument you have here to take Alabama. Their defense hasn’t looked all that dominant, and their offense has looked mediocre at best. Ole Miss is passing the ball very well to start the season and I don’t think they’ll have much trouble moving the ball in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Score Prediction: Ole Miss 30 – Alabama 27.
UAB @ Georgia – Saturday, 9/23 (7:30 PM EST)
Picks: AUB +42.5 (-110) 1 unit
There is something very fun about taking the dog in a 42.5 point spread but I like this game for more reasons than just vibes. Trent Dilfer is in his first CFB coaching season of his life, as he made the jump from highschool to college this summer. UAB hasn’t looked great by any stretch but their offense has been solid and I think Dilfer will be taking this game very seriously all week, with the hopes of making a splash against his first SEC opponent. I would say there is a less than 0% chance UAB wins this game but if they can lose by 3 scores that would make Dilfer look like a genius. Georgia is still the best team in the country, but with so many crappy opponents on the schedule to start the year I doubt they are taking AUB very seriously. They can basically roll out of bed and win 42 – 6. But guess what…a 42-6 victory still covers this massive spread. I’m taking Dilfer and the Blazers to hang in this game and keep it within 6 touchdowns. Score Prediction: Georgia 42, UAB 6
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 3: 4-3, +0.455 units)
Florida State @ Clemson – Saturday, 9/23 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Florida State -2 (-110) (1 unit)
It truly pains me to make this pick but I can’t ignore the difference in trajectories for these two programs at the moment. Yes, Florida State almost blew a 21 point lead at Boston College last week. Yes, Clemson blew out a terrible FAU squad at home last week. Both games feel irrelevant to be honest. Florida State endured a classic lookahead spot breakdown last week that included their Heisman hopeful getting a bit banged up but they were still able to avoid disaster. Not only did Clemson lose by 21 points to Duke to start the season, they followed that debacle up with a terrible first half performance against Charleston Southern at home (24-17 score at the half). Long story short, Dabo didn’t utilize the transfer portal and it’s starting to show on the field. Klubnik has struggled to settle in as the QB1 and Garrett Riley’s new offensive system appears to need more time than Clemson nation was hoping for. This Florida State team is GOOD on both sides of the ball. Jordan Travis is building a solid Heisman resume so far this season and he’s surrounded by multiple offensive weapons including Keon Coleman (4 TDs this year), Johnny Wilson (two 100+ receiving yard games this year) and bruiser RB in Trey Benson (4 rushing TDs this year). The Seminoles pass rush has already chalked up 10 sacks this season and they absolutely shut down LSU’s offense in the second half of their Week 1 matchup. This pass rush spells trouble for Klubnik as he hasn’t shown a ton of poise under pressure so far in his career. Clemson does seem to be taking more deep shots down the field (which they should see some success with against FSU) but I just don’t trust Klubnik to get the job done against a much more balanced/mature Seminoles squad. Clemson has also had Florida State’s number in this rivalry (FSU hasn’t beaten Clemson since 2014) so you know this game means everything to the Seminoles… especially after coming up just short in last year’s matchup (Clemson squeaked out the win 34-28). I’ll be surprised if FSU doesn’t win this game by at least a TD, if not a full on blowout in Death Valley. Score Prediction: Florida State 31 – Clemson 20.
Kentucky @ Vanderbilt – Saturday, 9/23 (12:00 PM EST)
Pick: Kentucky -13 (-113) (1 unit)
Couldn’t resist the late addition here… Devin Leary is simply playing too well this season and Vandy is simply too atrocious on both sides of the ball to not take action in this one. Vandy lost their RB from last year (who spearheaded last year’s upset victory at Kentucky), Kentucky’s defense is solid and Leary is leading an explosive offense that should pick apart a Vandy defense currently allowing 34.7 points per game. Kentucky should pick apart the Commodores through the air and there’s a chance they finally get their run game going against a sub part Vandy run defense that’s currently allowing ~152 rushing yards per game (against 4 unranked opponents). Expect the Wildcats to avenge last year’s home upset on the road on Saturday. Score Prediction: Kentucky 34 – Vanderbilt 17.
Oregon State @ Washington State – Saturday, 9/23 (7:00 PM EST)
Pick: Oregon State -2.5 (-118) (1 unit)
Man first I fade my Clemson Tigers, now I’m backing their starter from last year… tough. That said, DJ Uiagalelei finally looks like the calibur of QB that Clemson fans were expecting at the start of his college career. DJ’s been slinging it this year and Washington State’s pass defense is very suspect. Not only should the Beavers see success through the air, they also tout one of the best run games in the country behind their star RB Damien Martinez (351 rushing yards and 1 TD through his first 3 games). In addition to a powerful offense, Oregon State’s defense is STINGY. Oregon State currently allows the 9th fewest rushing yards per game and their secondary is loaded with experience. Washington State likes to air it out and their run game should be virtually non existent against this Oregon State squad so I believe the combination of the Beaver’s secondary experience and their balanced offensive attack will be too much for WSU to handle (even at home). The Beavers are a sneaky pick to win the PAC 12 this year (you know, in the last year that it will actually exist) and I think they make a statement on Saturday. Score Prediction: Oregon State 31 – Washington State 24.
Ohio State @ Notre Dame – Saturday, 9/23 (7:30 PM EST)
Pick: Notre Dame +3.5 (-117) (1 unit) & Total Points Under 56.5 (-110) (1 unit)
My first big upset prediction of the year! Notre Dame’s defense has looked solid through their first 4 games and Sam Hartman is the real deal. Ohio State seems like they’re still finding their identity on offense and it’s very hard to say if Kyle McCord is going to become the guy (tough spot having to replace CJ Stroud). Obviously Ohio State’s WR group is loaded between Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka but that doesn’t really matter if McCord can’t get them the ball in what should be very hostile territory in South Bend on Saturday. Notre Dame’s offense and defense are wildly balanced so far this season (averaging 304.3 pass yards per game, 204.5 rushing yards per game, allowing 126.8 pass yards per game and allowing 107.5 rushing yards per game). Backing the consistency/experience of the Fighting Irish in this one which has all the makings of an electric upset Saturday night. Also rolling with the under in this one… Both teams are highlighted by top 5 defenses in the country and Ohio State has only allowed 20 points all season through 3 games (against terrible teams… but still). The Fighting Irish secondary has been lockdown this season (4th in the country in passing yards allowed) and their run game has been stingy. This game has the makings of a trench battle so as long as the overtime bug doesn’t get us, I love this one to be settled by less than 8 TDs. Score Prediction: Notre Dame 27 – Ohio State 24.
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