One week down and the boys are 5-3 for +1.705 units. Name of the game this week will be overreactions and rebounds from Week 1. Let’s get it.
DPJ’s Best Bets (After Week 1: 2-2, -0.18 units)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans – Sunday 9/17 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Titans +3 (-110) (1 unit)
The Titans host the Chargers at home in week 2 and both teams are searching for their first win of the season after tough losses last Sunday. Those losses came in quite different ways, the Chargers took an L against the Dolphins in the most exciting game of week 1, and the Titans took an L in a stinker of a game at the Superdome against the Saints. I love the spot for the Titans here coming home to Nashville. Vrabel is a tremendous 24-15-1 ATS as an underdog, and I would bet those numbers are even juicier as a home dog. Tannehill also has a knack for covering spreads in the first couple months of the year in his career, he’s 54-43-2 in September/October/November games. We’ll want to fade Ryan come December where he is 19-29-2 for his career from that month onward. The Titans will undoubtedly muck this game up and turn it into a trench warfare battle. The Chargers could also be without star RB Austin Ekeler who is nursing an ankle injury, but even if he plays he might be limited. Love the Titans getting three points in this one and I could even see them getting the dub. Score Prediction: Titans 23 – Chargers 22.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots – Sunday 9/17 (8:20 PM EST)
Pick: Patriots +3 (-110) (1 unit)
The Miami Dolphins looked like they could be the best team in the NFL in week 1. Tua is healthy as a horse and somehow Tyreek Hill looks like he has gotten faster. It absolutely pains me to pick against the Dolphins here, but I’ve come to learn that means it’s probably the smart bet. The Patriots looked surprisingly solid in week 1 at Philly and they showed some resilience after going down 16-0 in the first quarter. The Eagles have one of the best rosters in the league but they struggled to run the ball and Jalen Hurts looked uneasy for most of the game. Credit to the Pats defense for that, and credit to Mac Jones for hanging in there and eventually tallying three TDs and 316 yards in the air. Similar to my Titans picks, I love Belichick at home as a dog, I think the Pats will slow this one down and this game won’t look anything like the Dolphins track meet in Sofi last Sunday. The Patriots aren’t going down without a fight, and having those three points in the back pocket will pay off. Score Prediction: Dolphins 24 – Patriots 23.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday 9/17 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Under 51.5 (-110) (1 unit)
This should be one of the best games of the weekend as the Chiefs head to Jacksonville looking to bounce back from their disappointing week 1 loss to the Lions at home in KC on ring night. The Chiefs defense looked solid all night and kept Detroit in check, and they were one Kadarius Toney catch away from winning that game with relative ease. On the other sideline, the Jags came away with a dub against the undermatched Colts in week 1, but despite the final score they didn’t look all that great, particularly in the first half. The Chiefs also got some serious reinforcements this week. Chris Jones inked a one year deal ending his holdout so they are getting stronger on the DL to the tune of one of the best interior lineman in the NFL. What makes this one even more tasty…the public is absolutely hammering(!) the over. As I write this, 96% of the money is on the over and 82% of total bets. The line has climbed up a point and a half from the open of 50, and that’s with the Chiefs getting their star DL back in that time…ridiculous! I’m siding with Vegas on this one and taking the under. Score Prediction: Chiefs 27 – Jaguars 23.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers – Monday 9/18 (8:15 PM EST)
Pick: Over 38.5 (-110) (1 unit)
This bet right here is basically the exact opposite of my Chiefs/Jags under pick. The public is hammering the under as Browns head to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers. The under is getting 96% of the money and 69% of total bets which is equally as absurd as KC/JAX. Yes, I know how bad the Steelers looked last week. And yes, I know how much the Browns defense clowned the Bengals last week. But this seems like a perfect spot to hop on the over, especially for a Monday Night Football Mike Tomlin Home Dog Special (patent pending). These two teams met in January of last year and if memory serves it was a gross game but the final point total was 42, and that was with a still rusty Deshaun Watson. I think these teams will move the ball relatively well and I’d expect them to at least crack a 40 point total. RIP to you public dummies taking the under like a bunch of sheep. Score Prediction: Steelers 26 – Browns 24.
Q’s Best Bets (After Week 1: 3-1, +1.885 units)
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles/Las Vegas Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
Pick: 2 Leg Parlay: Eagles -2.5/Bills -2.5 (-115) (1 unit) & Jalen Hurts Anytime TD Scorer (-104) (1 unit)
Combination of a Kirk Cousins primetime fade and a classic Buffalo Bills bounce back game.
The Eagles had to squeak one out against the Pats last week despite having a 16-0 lead at the start of the game but I’m willing to chalk up the Pats’ comeback to Bill Belichick’s elite defensive mind and some rust for the Eagles coming off of last year’s Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. Now the Eagles catch a poor Vikings defense at home against a QB who has a tendency to lack the “clutch gene” in primetime games. The Vikings had a great season last year but, let’s be honest, that success came with quite a bit of luck as well (you would expect a team that had such a disappointing finish to last year’s postseason to come out firing Week 1… not lose to the Bucs at home). Expect the Eagles to ramp up their run game in this one and for Hurts to find his groove at home. Also expect Cousins to crumble playing in front of a raucous Philly crowd Thursday night.
Jalen Hurts had a poor performance against New England last week and he scored 13 TDs on the ground last season (didn’t find the end zone in Week 1). Expect Hurts to rely on his feet (his comfort zone) in Week 2 which should result in a trip to the end zone given Minnesota’s average defensive play against QB runs last season (and not much has changed on that unit coming into 2023). Score Prediction: Eagles 27 – Vikings 17, TD Projection: 1.5.
This Bills take is very simple… Josh Allen played awful in Week 1 (4 turnovers) and probably lost his team the game against a Zach Wilson led Jets team. Now they face a Raiders team that will likely be average at best this season at home. Classic Josh Allen/Bills bounce back game. Expect a stingy effort out of the Bills defense this weekend and the start of Josh Allen’s redemption tour on Sunday. Score Prediction: Bills 34 – Raiders 17.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions – Sunday, 9/17 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Seahawks +6 (-110) (1 unit)
Taking advantage of overreactions from Week 1 on both sides here. The Seahawks 30-13 loss to the Rams last week was definitely shocking, but Seattle’s defense really didn’t play as poorly as it appears on paper. Geno Smith should definitely play better this week and this squad is still a favorite to win their division. The Lions also shocked the world by beating the Chiefs in Week 1 but realistically the Chiefs should’ve won that game even with all the drops from their WR group. The Lions won that game because of some gutsy play calling from Dan Campbell, Jared Goff’s trend to show out in Week 1 and a pick six for the Lions that literally went right through Kadarius Toney’s hands. If anything I think the Seahawks win this game outright so I’ll take the points on Seattle in this one all day long. Score Prediction: Seahawks 24 – Lions 23.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, 9/17 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Chiefs -3 (-110) (1 unit)
Echoing some of the same sentiment here that I mentioned for the Seahawks pick, the Chiefs definitely should’ve beat the Lions in Week 1 and now we’re getting a value line against a Jags team that they were favored by 9.5 points against last postseason. The Chiefs now get Chris Jones back (who is the heart and soul of their defense) and the their receivers can only play better after last week. It sounds like there’s a good chance KC could also get back the top TE in the league this week in Travis Kelce as well so I’m jumping all over this line at -3 before it moves. Love Trevor Lawrence, love the potential of this Jags squad, but they’re catching a pissed off Mahomes/Chiefs team at the wrong time. Score Prediction: Chiefs 34 – Jaguars 24.
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons – Sunday, 9/17 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Falcons +2 (-110) (1 unit)
I’m honestly pretty surprised by this line given the fact that these two teams are pretty comparable… Young/unproven QBs, depend on the run game, neither defense is elite. I’m siding with the Falcons in this one given the dynamic rushing duo of Tyler Allgeier/Bijan Robinson (Cordarelle Patterson could also return this week), the likely return of CB Jeff Okudah (which should make Love’s job even more difficult given his depleted WR corps at the moment) and the fact that they’re playing this one in Atlanta. Love looked decent in Week 1 but his passing yards were inflated by a big reception by Aaron Jones and there’s a chance Christian Watson misses another game with his hamstring injury. Oh… and Aaron Jones is questionable to play as well with his own hamstring injury. Given ATL’s superior run game and the question marks for Green Bay currently, banking on the Falcons to run all over the Packers on Sunday in a game that should probably have Atlanta favored in the first place. Score Prediction: Falcons 27 – Packers 24.
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