Boy oh boy… what a start to the season. Sign me up for Kadarius Toney drop props moving forward. NFL Week 1 is finally upon us and the SHB brain trust is ready to keep building on our +15.68 units finish last season. Beware of numerous trap lines this week (don’t simply take a team because they played well last year) and keep in mind changes throughout the offseason. Football is so back. Bet smarter, not harder.

Q’s Best Bets

LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks/Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Pick: 2 Leg Parlay: Seahawks -2.5/Falcons -2.5 (+167) (1 unit)

(Sorry Jake) I think the Rams will be terrible this season. Kupp might have to go on IR, Stafford’s wife vocalized his struggles connecting with the team’s WRs (fun) and the defense is an absolute shell of itself. This team feels like it’s not excited for this season. Enter Seattle… Surprisingly solid season last year, career season for Geno Smith, and they’ve only added pieces to continue that success in the offseason. Jaxon Smith-Njigba adds to an already dangerous WR corps including DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Zach Charbonnet, although a surprising draft pick by Seattle in my opinion, removes concern tied to the durability of Kenneth Walker III. The defense added multiple pieces in the offseason and playing in Seattle is always a formidable factor. I’ll be surprised if Seattle doesn’t win by two scores on Sunday. Score Prediction: Seahawks 27 – Rams 17.

I’m fading my beloved Panthers here so I’ll keep this brief… Based on the preseason, it doesn’t look like Carolina’s O line issues have been resolved yet and, given the Panthers lack of offensive weapons in general for rookie QB Bryce Young, Sunday could be a bloodbath. The Panthers defense is still solid and I expect them to take another step forward this season (just LOADED with young talent) but the Falcons offense is nothing to scoff at coming into 2023. The clear question mark for the dirty birds is Desmond Ridder (first year being the true QB1) but he has quite a few weapons at his disposal (Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Bijan Robinson). The Falcons defense also isn’t terrible so I suspect a poor showing from my squad on Sunday and an easy cover for the home team (unfortunately). Score Prediction: Falcons 23 – Panthers 16.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns – Sunday, 9/10 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Browns Moneyline (+115) (1 unit)

My favorite underdog pick of the week… Before you lose your minds over fading Joe Burrow, let’s keep in mind that he’s been injured for basically the entire preseason/hasn’t played in a single preseason game. I get it, he’s great and he just signed a massive extension (highest paid player in NFL history). You can be the greatest player on the planet… but, reps are reps. Burrow was in a similar position last season (missed the whole preseason) and the Bengals lost Week 1 to a far inferior Steelers team (talking about the 2022 Steelers here…). Week 1 is always ripe for upsets and where better than the “beautiful” city of Cleveland, OH. Say what you will about Deshaun Watson, dude can ball and I highly expect his talent to be on full display this year. The Browns defense is stout, Nick Chubb is an animal and DW4 has the weapons he needs to feast on opposing defenses this season (and finally has had the time to learn a playbook/scheme entirely different from any offense he’d played in prior). Who has more to prove than Deshaun Watson this year? No one. Browns win Week 1 at home then it’s off to the races. Score Prediction: Browns 27 – Bengals 24.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens – Sunday, 9/10 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Ravens -9.5 (-110) (1 unit)

So the hot topic with this game right now is to fade the Ravens given all the new talent that Houston has acquired… all young talent that has never played a regular season game led by a brand new head coach. I’m deciding to back a more eye popping trend. The Ravens have won 5 of their last 6 Week 1 games by 15 or more points (shout out covers.com)… Lamar blows teams out Week 1, this is probably the best WR room he’s ever worked with, Dobbins is primed for a comeback and they catch one of the youngest teams in the league at home to start the year. The addition of Will Anderson, Jr. will obviously help the Texans defense but this Ravens backfield will still run all over this Houston defensive unit without a doubt. Expect 6 out of 7 Week 1 victories by 15 or more points for Baltimore. Score Prediction: Ravens 34 – Texans 17.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts – Sunday, 9/10 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Calvin Ridley Anytime TD Scorer (+165) (0.5 units)

I could not be higher on Calvin Ridley this season with Trevor Lawrence under center and Doug Pederson calling the plays… For anyone who has been living under a rock for the entire offseason/preseason, prepare to be amazed. The guy looks like he’s in his prime and he has (in my opinion) the best QB of his career throwing him strikes on Sunday. Talk about another player with something to prove… Ridley finds the endzone this weekend. Prop Prediction: 1.5 TDs.

DPJ’s Best Bets

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens/LA Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
Pick: 2 Leg Parlay: Ravens -2.5, Seahawks -2.5 (-120) (1 unit)

Congratulations to me for not starting my 2023 NFL picks with a teaser bet or moneyline parlay. Instead I’m being an adult and taking an alternate line parlay for both the Seahawks and the Ravens. We’ll call this one the alt-bird-parlay if you will. 

Part 1 of the alt-bird-parlay is the Ravens at home taking on the rebuilding Houston Texans. I absolutely love the Ravens this year. I have them as a Super Bowl future, I have them winning the AFC North, and I now have them in a bet for week 1. The Ravens have finally come to their senses and given Lamar Jackson some legitimate weapons to compete in the AFC. I had a conspiracy last season that they purposely didn’t sign a single competent receiver with the goal of suppressing Lamar’s contract value, as he was in a contract year. After an injury riddled second half of the year, and a tumultuous offseason, the two sides finally agreed on a deal and Lamar got an absolute shit load of money (deservedly so). Now that they got that over with, Baltimore went ahead and signed noted cool guy and former stud receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted slot receiver Zay Flowers out of Boston College. Those two will be paired with top tight end Mark Andrews and another high-potential WR in Rashod Bateman, in the newly remodeled offense under first year OC Todd Monken. What an incredible idea to give your former-MVP QB some weapons, huh? The defense still has some question marks but there is no doubt in my mind Harbaugh will figure it out. The Ravens get a cupcake against Houston at home in Baltimore to open the season and if this is anything other than a two score W that will be a disappointing start to 2023. Score Prediction: Ravens 30 – Texans 17. 

Part 2 of the alt-bird-parlay is the Seahawks taking on the Cooper Kuppless Rams. I am a Rams fan and you will likely see me betting against the Rams early and often this year. The vibes could not be worse going into the 2023-24 season. On Wednesday we had Sean McVay talking about Kupp’s hamstring injury in some pretty grim ways, and it’s looking like an IR stint is likely. The problem with this Rams roster is outside of Stafford, Kupp and Donald, there are a lot of scrubs and a lot of holes. I don’t see how this defense isn’t going to let up 30+ PPG, and I don’t see how the offense will consistently move the ball without their only weapon missing in Cooper Kupp. Perhaps I’m wrong, and perhaps McVay really does have some more tricks up his sleeve, but it feels like we’re moving towards an eventual sell off of all their assets (including Donald) and full blown tank for Caleb Williams if this season gets off to a rocky start. Unfortunately for us LAR fans, I think it gets off to a rocky start as the Rams will likely be holding an L after week 1 in Seattle. Unlike the Rams, the Seahawks have dudes all over the field. Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker were a dominant force last year, and their defense was shockingly good and only got better. They also spent some draft capital on rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and rookie RB Zach Charbonnet. The Seahawks will likely be good, the Rams likely very bad, end of story. Score Prediction: Seahawks 27 – Rams 24.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears – Sunday, 9/10 (4:25 PM EST)
Pick: Packers +1.5 (-110) (1 unit)

To start, I’m fading the Packers win total and buying the Bears win total this year in my future bets, but this line just feels plain wrong. Justin Fields has been the talk of the offseason and many NFL pundits are quick to crown him as a future star in the league. I still have a lot of questions about his arm and I still have a lot of questions about the Bears defense. The Packers have an even bigger question mark at QB with Jordan Love under center, but at least they have a formiddle rushing attack, offensive line and solid defense that should outshine their rivals in Chicago. Yes it will be bizarre to see the Packers move on without boogeyman Aaron Rodgers leading the team. But I think they have enough to get a W in week 1, and at the least i’ll take the point and a half with Green Bay. This one could absolutely come down to the wire, and that’s when you like to have a point or two in your back pocket. Score Prediction: Packers 26 – Bears 24.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts – Sunday, 9/10 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Colts +5.5 (-110) (1 unit)

This is one of those bets that feels so uncomfortable I simply have to take the Colts. Indy has no business being only a 5.5 point dog against Jacksonville who were pretty damn good last year and added some additional weapons. Anthony Richardson could very well be the next Josh Allen, but who the hell knows. I thought this line would be closer to 9 or 10 points, and when I’m that wrong, I have to fade myself and ride with the Colts. Vegas is clearly seeing something that I’m not seeing and they have left me no choice but to trust them. No Jonathan Taylor? Rookie QB under center? Mediocre Defense? Whatever. The Colts are sticking around in this one and will make it a close game. I know how to smell a rat (I think). Score Prediction: Jags 30 – Colts 25. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns – Sunday, 9/10 (1:00 PM EST)
Pick: Browns +2.5 (-110) (1 unit)

Similar to my Colts pick, I’m rolling with the Browns for similar reasons. This team is by no means a crappy team like the Colts. They have a good coach (I think), a good defense, good offensive line, good running back, decent weapons, and a good quarterback (who allegedly might be a pervert). The Bengals however get talked about in the media like they are the second coming of Jesus Christ. It seems like everyone and their mother is picking the Bengals to win the SB this year as they have brought back a ton of dudes and more, and their star players have continued to improve year after year. This was another line that I thought would be closer to 4 or 5 points, but seeing it only at 2.5 and even as low as 1 or 2 points on other sportsbooks has me itching to bet the Browns. Vegas likely sees a slow start to the season for Cincy (like the last two years) and the Browns should theoretically be able to hang with anyone this year. I’ll ride with the (alleged) Nasty Man Watson and the Cleveland Browns in week 1 at home. Score Prediction: Browns 23 – Bengals 20.

Disclaimer: SidehustlebetsMJQ.com is not an online gambling operator or a gambling site of any kind. Our insights about sports/sports betting are purely for entertainment purposes only.