We won’t sugarcoat it… it’s a bloodbath out there so far. That said, our futures are still looking juicy and we’re EXTREMELY motivated for a big Sunday ticket. Strap in for another heroic SHB comeback and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

4th Round Matchups

Rickie Fowler (-125) (1 unit) vs Min Woo Lee

Rickie’s currently 14th in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, 11th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and top 40 in the field for both Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and Around the Green. After running a linear regression using current position as the dependent variable and all other strokes gained categories as independent variables, Fowler is currently 21 places worse than he should be on the scoreboard heading into Sunday. His competitor, Min Woo Lee, is the polar opposite. Using the same regression coefficients, Min Woo Lee should be ~45 spots further down the leaderboard than he is currently. Lee’s only 56th in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting, 59th in the field for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and 49th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. Doubling down on my earlier Rickie faith here.

Richard Bland (-105) (1 unit) vs Henrik Stenson

The Southhampton native was a popular sleeper pick coming into the tournament, and his stats over the past three days confirm why. Bland is currently 10th in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting, 21st in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach and 25th in the field for Strokes Gained: Around The Green. Stenson, conversely, has struggled off the tee and with his putter all tournament. Heavily backing the home field advantage (and a massive amount of sharp money that came in on Bland right before the tournament started) and trusting Bland to leave his mark tomorrow on a course he’s intimately familiar with.

4th Round Props

Jon Rahm – To Shoot 69 or Better (+110) (1 unit)

Rahmbo is BACK and there’s no doubt he’ll be sniffing for blood on Sunday. After a record breaking 63, it’s hard not to declare this man course proof at this point. He currently ranks 2nd overall in the field given the current course linear regression results, he’s the arguably the best player on the planet currently (and for the past 1.5 – 2 years) and he already has one major under his belt this season. Given the fact that he’s currently 6 strokes off the lead… expect a large push from Rahm on Sunday.

Viktor Hovland – To Shoot 69 or Better (+125) (0.5 units)

Only throwing 0.5 units on Hovland to go low on Sunday given his lack of excellence on the day of the Sabbath historically but don’t get me wrong… he should come out firing tomorrow. He’s currently 6th in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting, 11th in the field in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 13th in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. He’s improved his game around the green this week (slightly), he really has no pressure coming into Sunday (7 shots off the lead) and he’s been flirting with his first major championship for a year now. Oh, and he’s paired with Rahm tomorrow… iron sharpens iron.

Cameron Smith – To Shoot 69 or Better (-110) (0.5 units)

The defending champ may have a bad record on Sundays at British Opens overall historically, but he is coming off the greatest round in British Open history last year (the first major championship victory of his career). He’s also coming off a victory on the LIV Tour last week, he’s top half of the field in all categories but putting (which is wild considering he’s the best putter on the planet) and he’s 2nd in the field for Strokes Gained: Around The Green currently… The Aussie is going to bring the heat on Sunday.

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