The best players in the world make the trip across the pond this week to Royal Liverpool GC to wrap up the 2023 majors season. We may have missed the mark with our outright winner pick last month, but we also hit on every prop bet we listed as well as most of our Top 20 futures bets (3 out of 5) allowing us to finish +2.71 units for the tournament. Starting to sense a profit pattern yet? Take a peek at our success over the last 2 years if you still need convincing (Majors Recap below).

Enjoy our favorite picks for the week and tomorrow’s first round, get your naps in early and often (first group goes off at 1:35 AM EST on Thursday) and always remember to bet smarter, not harder.

Side Hustle Bets Golf Majors Recap

Year	Major	Total Net Units	Winner Predicted?
2022	Masters	+20.93	Yes
2022	PGA Championship	-2.11	Yes
2022	US Open	+2.45	Yes
2022	British Open	-3.17	No
2023	Masters	+1.81	Yes
2023	PGA Championship	+2.17	Hedged
2023	US Open	+2.71	No

What a ride it has been… SHB is currently up +24.79 units through 7 majors (averaging around +3.54 units per major) and we’ve only straight up missed two outright winners along the way (~71.43% success rate). We have finished profitable overall in 5 out of 7 tournaments (another ~71.43% success rate) and we’ve finished profitable with 75% of our Round by Round bets (18 profitable rounds out of 24).

It pays to bet smarter, not harder (the slogan so nice, we had to say it twice).

Royal Liverpool GC Course Formula

2023 British Open Champion = Strokes Gained Off The Tee (22%) + Driving Accuracy (10%) + Strokes Gained: Approach (26%) + Strokes Gained: Around The Green (27%) + Strokes Gained: Putting (15%)

I’ll keep this week’s breakdown short and simple. This course favors the players who can win the race from tee to green. The long ball should be king this week so expect to see driver early and often. A player’s ball striking and ability to clean up around the greens will also be important (as it always is) but those who can distance themselves from the competition off the tee will have a significant advantage this week. Normally I would fade putting a bit but, given Cam Smith’s absolute masterpiece of a putting performance in the final round of his British Open victory last year, I’m showing the category a little more respect in 2023.

Futures Bets

Outright Winner

Player	Odds	Units
Scottie Scheffler	+750	0.35
Rory McIlroy	+800	0.3
Brooks Koepka	+2000	0.25
Viktor Hovland	+2500	0.2
Patrick Cantlay	+2500	0.15
Tyrrell Hatton	+2800	0.15
Tommy Fleetwood	+3000	0.1

If you’re starting to get tired of seeing Scottie Scheffler’s name under our outright winner picks, get over it. The guy is easily one of the best players in the world and he’s felt due for another major for over a year now. With the exception of putting, which is a massive exception, his game is flawless and he always finds himself in contention (even when he doesn’t have his best stuff). Don’t be surprised to see Scheffler notch “Open Champion” on his belt this week.

So I won’t lie, I’m getting tired of writing Rory’s name on our outright winner slip. That said, we think rationally vs emotionally here at Side Hustle Bets. Not only is Rory one of the greatest drivers of the golf ball in the history of the game, he also won the British Open the last time it was played at Royal Liverpool in 2014. He’s fresh off a victory at last week’s Scottish Open, he can play a links course in his sleep and he’s been due for a majors breakthrough for longer than I can remember at this point. Rory is always just one positive mental thought away from absolutely annihilating the field given his greatness off the tee, especially over on that side of the pond.

I was somewhat tentative to list Koepka this week but the fact of the matter is there’s a great chance “majors Koepka” is here to stay. He’s kept up his fantastic play since winning the PGA Championship and he ranks within the top 10 of the field for virtually every major statistical category this week. Koepka has fared decently at British Opens in the past and you know his competitive nature will fuel him to strive one step closer to a career grand slam. 

Viktor Hovland… I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, not “if” but “when”. Hovland is arguably the best player on the planet yet to bring home a major title and he ranks 6th in the field this week for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. As long as Hovland can keep things in check around the greens this week then he should once again find himself in contention come Sunday.

Say what you will about Patrick Cantlay, his play speaks for itself. Cantlay has posted 13 Top 20 finishes this season (out of 17 starts), 8 Top 10 finishes and only 2 missed cuts all year (granted one of those missed cuts was at the Scottish Open last week, but I digress). Cantlay has stepped up his play in majors (5 Top 10 finishes in a row) and he finished T8 at last year’s British Open. Don’t let his slow play fool you, Cantlay should contend this week for his first major title.

Hatton and Fleetwood are two more “home field advantage” type picks, but for good reason. Hatton has posted a top 20 finish in 7 of his last 8 tournaments (finishing T6 at last week’s Scottish Open) and he’s shown the ability to excel at British Opens (T11, T6 and T5 finishes since 2016). As long as Hatton can keep his temper under control this week, he’s sure to be a fan favorite. Fleetwood’s game has transformed over the past year and what better venue to win your first career tournament than at the British Open? Fleetwood’s current consistency across all facets of his game make him quite dangerous this week, especially if the golf gods have some good karma in store for him after his heartbreaking playoff loss to Nick Taylor at the RBC Canadian Open (Taylor beat him in the playoff after draining a 72 ft putt).

Top 20

Player	Odds	Units
Cameron Smith	+110	0.5
Tommy Fleetwood	+115	0.5
Xander Schauffele	+120	0.5
Collin Morikawa	+140	0.5
Shane Lowry	+140	0.5

While I don’t necessarily expect another Herculean putting effort from Cam Smith this week similar to last year’s British Open, I’m not writing off that possibility. This year’s defending champ has aggressively improved his play on the LIV Tour this season (winning last week in London) and he’s inched closer and closer up the leaderboard at majors after his subpar performance at this year’s Masters. Normally I’d say Smith’s game doesn’t align well with links courses but he’s already proven he’s good enough to win anywhere and he’s playing championship golf at the moment. Not calling a repeat victory here, but I do expect a solid effort from the Aussie this week.

Additional Tommy Fleetwood fun fact… he’s finished T12, 2nd, T33 and T4 in his last four British Open starts… can you say “in contention”?

Not much more to say about Xander Schauffele that I haven’t harped on heavily over the past two years. His game is quality/consistent across the board and he’s an absolute majors top 20 machine (6 Top 20 finishes at majors in a row). He can’t quite seem to break through into the winner’s circle yet but he’s definitely familiar with the company.

Morikawa is another player who is just one swing adjustment away from a third major victory. He already has a British Open championship under his belt and his ball striking both off the tee and into greens is elite. If he can make more intermediate distance putts than this tournament could get ugly for the rest of the field, quickly.

Lowry is coming off a T12 finish at last week’s Scottish Open and he’s finished T21, T12 and 1st in his last three British Opens. He has Top 20 finishes in all three majors this season and he’s sure to be a fan favorite at Hoylake this week. Oh, and he finished T9 at Royal Liverpool the last time the venue hosted a British Open.

Top 40

Player	Odds	Units
Cameron Young	-120	0.5
Bryson DeChambeau	-105	0.5

Everyone is so quick to forget Young’s 2nd place finish at last year’s British Open. Make no mistake, that was no fluke. Young’s prowess off the tee sets up perfectly for Royal Liverpool, ranking 10th in the field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 5th in Driving Distance. Expect those traits to serve him nicely this week.

Again, the big dog will eat this week. No one loves the big dog more than Bryson DeChambeau. Not only will DeChambeau have a massive advantage off the tee this week, he’s also quietly playing quality golf this season. He’s posted 5 Top 20 finishes on the LIV Tour in a row and he’s finished T4 and T20 in his last two major starts. Don’t be surprised to see the scientist improve on his T8 finish at the British Open last year. Can’t just let Koepka have all the fun.

Prop Bets

Make The Cut

Player	Odds	Units
Keita Nakajima	+115	0.5

Love this sleeper prop on Keita Nakajima this week. The young pro has racked up 7 Top 10 finishes on the Japan Golf Tour since April and he ranks 8th in the field for Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. While I don’t think Nakajima shocks the world this week, he definitely has the skill (and confidence) to make it to weekend play.

Top Continental European

Player	Odds	Units
Jon Rahm	+380	0.5
Viktor Hovland	+550	0.4
Sepp Straka	+2200	0.1

Yes, I’m going back to the well on this prop. The combo of Rahm/Hovland against the field is simply too good to pass up but I’m hedging my odds with Sepp Straka this week given his stellar play as of late (Straka won the John Deere Classic earlier this month). When it comes to this prop… if it’s not broken, don’t fix it!

1st Round Bets

1st Round Matchup

Denny McCarthy (-150) (1 unit) vs Francesco Molinari

McCarthy’s putter is on fire as of late (ranking 4th in the field for Strokes Gained: Putting) and he’s posted three Top 10 finishes in his last 4 tournaments (his only “miss” being a T20 finish at the US Open). McCarthy has the ability to come out firing early and Molinari hasn’t made a cut since early May (and he ranks 179th on tour in 1st Round Scoring Average)… Love my chances here.

1st Round Props

Scottie Scheffler – To Shoot 69 or Better (-110) (1 unit)

Not only does Scheffler rank 1st on tour in 1st Round Scoring Average (67.78), he’s posted 1st rounds of 69 or better in 10 of his last 11 tournaments. In the only two British Opens he’s competed in, Scheffler posted 1st round scores of 67 and 68. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Scottie sitting atop the leaderboard after Thursday.

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